FA = OK , Valuation quite good. most conservative calculation, eps 52 whole year ,PE only 8.36 as compare to pe 15 industry average. US Decision to approve medical restructuring will boost glove sector
Impact on Ringgit = from 3.3 to 3.1 riggit appreciate 6% thus reduce 6% of earnings. No problem to its high profit margin 19%. After riggint appreciate still able to make 13% due to its high profit margin , still a value buy.
Chart 1.
Divergence差异
Wilder further believed that divergence between RSI and price action is a very strong indication that a market turning point is imminent. Bearish divergence occurs when price makes a new high but the RSI makes a lower high, thus failing to confirm. Bullish divergence occurs when price makes a new low but RSI makes a higher low.
Overbought and oversold conditions
Wilder thought that "failure swings" above 70 and below 30 on the RSI are strong indications of market reversals. For example, assume the RSI hits 76, pulls back to 72, then rises to 77. If it falls below 72, Wilder would consider this a "failure swing" above 70.
Finally, Wilder wrote that chart formations and areas of support and resistance could sometimes be more easily seen on the RSI chart as opposed to the price chart. The center line for the relative strength index is 50, which is often seen as both the support and resistance line for the indicator. If the relative strength index is below 50, it generally means that the stock's losses are greater than the gains. When the relative strength index is above 50, it generally means that the gains are greater than the losses.
Uptrends and downtrends
In addition to Wilder's original theories of RSI interpretation, Andrew Cardwell has developed several new interpretations of RSI to help determine and confirm trend. First, Cardwell noticed that uptrends generally traded between RSI 40 and 80, while downtrends usually traded between RSI 60 and 20. Cardwell observed when securities change from uptrend to downtrend and vice versa, the RSI will undergo a "range shift."
Example of RSI Indicator Divergence
Next, Cardwell noted that bearish divergence: 1) only occurs in uptrends, and 2) mostly only leads to a brief correction instead of a reversal in trend. Therefore bearish divergence is a sign confirming an uptrend. Similarly, bullish divergence is a sign confirming a downtrend.
Reversals
Finally, Cardwell discovered the existence of positive and negative reversals in the RSI. Reversals are the opposite of divergence. For example, a positive reversal occurs when an uptrend price correction results in a higher low compared to the last price correction, while RSI results in a lower low compared to the prior correction. A negative reversal happens when a downtrend rally results in a lower high compared to the last downtrend rally, but RSI makes a higher high compared to the prior rally.
In other words, despite stronger momentum as seen by the higher high or lower low in the RSI, price could not make a higher high or lower low. This is evidence the main trend is about to resume. Cardwell noted that positive reversals only happen in uptrends while negative reversals only occur in downtrends, and therefore their existence confirms the trend.
Abstract information from one of the investor from forum
http://www.investalks.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=3299&extra=page%3D4
ALLIANZ 股数: 153.869million
ALLIANZ -ICPS股数: 192.336million
去年业绩 net profit : 118.857million
EPS = 118.857/153.869=77.25sen
PE = RM3.7/RM0.7725 = 4.8
(If all ALLIANZ-ICPS converted after 1 year)
Estimate Deluted EPS = 118.857/346.205 = 0.343
Estimate Deluted PE = RM3.7/RM0.343=10.8
Current price
pe = 4.15/0.7725 = 5.37
Assume EPS remain same due to economy slow down and pe 7
Thus
7 x0.343 = 2.4
Company Presentation Q1 2010
https://www.allianz.com.my/cls/index_b4.aspx?t=1508#top
ALLIANZ (1163) 是一家保险公司, 有两种业务. 第一种是普险, 第二种是人寿险.
最近它为了解决母公司上次借它的RM490million, 发行优先股跟股东讨钱. 预料这次优先股可以筹到RM611million
每100股ALLIANZ会分配到125股的ALLIANZ-PR(是一种right)
ALLIANZ-PR最后一天自由交易是星期四 15/7/2010
每股ALLIANZ-PR要还RM3.18 来convert 变 ALLIANZ-ICPS优先股.
ALLIANZ-ICPS将在8月6日上市.
ALLIANZ-ICPS优先股 的好处:
如果ALLIANZ打算发股息, 比例一定是 ALLIANZ-ICPS 1.2 : 1 ALLIANZ普通股 (ALLIANZ-ICPS会收到比普通股更多的股息)
ALLIANZ-ICPS可以在一年过后免费转为ALLIANZ(如果ALLIANZ-ICPS拥有者想要这样做) (所以1年以内ALLIANZ不会有EPS delution)
坏处是: ALLIANZ-ICPS没有投票的权利.
感觉ALLIANZ 德国母公司很支持ALLIANZ Malaysia 一下.
上次免息借RM490million收购COMMERZ INSURANCE
这次如果有股东不要subscribe RM3.18 ALLIANZ ICPS, ALLIANZ母公司愿意subscribe完.
BNM有要求ALLIANZ保持最多75%股权. 所以就算ALLIANZ买完全部ALLIANZ ICPS它也不能乱Convert.
ALLIANZ印象中有停牌过. 原因是ALLIANZ 德国母公司拥有98%股权太高了. 所以它把大约24%卖给Fund, 只剩下75%, 之后ALLIANZ又重新买卖.
ALLIANZ 2007年花了RM490million买了COMMERZ INSURANCE, 而且跟CIMB签了10年Contract可以利用CIMB平台卖保险. 感觉有点像LPI+PBBANK. Detailed Contract还没研究. 2008年不太赚钱部分原因是要Write Down COMMERZ INSURANCE里的烂帐.
ALLIANZ人寿险部分开始对公司有贡献. 以前ALLIANZ要输入投资进人寿险子公司. 现在人寿险子公司2009年度贡献了RM12million.
股权方面:ALLIANZ SE有74.97%前46大股东有94.56股权. Free Float5.44%
From 2nd brother .
Allianz 的 appraisal change Allianz，
最近买入了这间公司。有朋友问说，它也不怎么样 undervalue，underwriting 也不是非常出色，dividend 也很低，怎样看都不是很值得？？保险公司是我一路以来都有留意的行业。打从10 年前看了评述 warren buffett 的书后，就买了 P＆O 和 LPI，也曾买过 Kurnia Asia。亏过也赚过。这行业的重点是管理层，只有好的管理层才能创造价值。从cimb 那里买入普险业务后，跟母公司借了 490 Mil。问题也从这里开始，虽然是零利息的贷款。还有就是 bank negara 对资本要求的提高。为了解决这问题， Allianz 通过优先股筹了 611 mil。那又有什么卖点呢？是 appraisal change。通过优先股，它解决跟母公司的贷款 和 bank negara 对资本要求。从现在开始，它的盈利都可派发给股东。还有它的管理层也不差，形象会改变！
Conclusion The problem with the company is that its trade recievable too high and collection too slow, it was about 220days,debt are too high ,thus it will have cash problem to operate. Not worth to buy as it was running on high debt model, collection are too slow, thus it will have cashflow problems moreover business operation is not effiecient, it owe a lots of debts which is 0.65cent for its share. It doesnt generate max return looking at the market cap , for 1 cent it generate 1 cent only. Definetely not a value investing stocks.
(一直提醒自己股市里谁都不可以信，要靠自己的分析，技术，经验和坚持。看看megan案件，再看看叫老散卖的那个功夫不到家却自认专家的，或那种自吹自擂的好像那个什么。。。众人皆醉我独醒的这个那个家伙，还有那种叫你去抬货的分析员，用意好可是技术不足的旁观者意见，什么事天天都在发生。）
It translate to eps only0.022 cent. 0.022cent eps over price 0.9 , pe = 40 unreasonabble expensive. I think this will not be my cup of tea as it doesnt fufill my buy criteria look, it owe huge debt , interest expenses are too high. Just like scomi, big capital, huge debt, peanut return. My business experiences and sense told me, no matter how market fluctuate i shld avoid this type of company.
Even it is high roe and high debt i should avoid. Look at LCL, during 2007 it was high roe a lot of project come, huge debt, but promising sales and increasing revenue, but no cash flow. When middle east hits, it doesnt have cashflow to sustain the business worst still all his building become bad debt. Therefore, first thing on margin of safety is -- Cash Flow!
同样的风格，也反映在巴菲特保守的经营策略上。巴菲特的高度纪律和冷静的性格，是一般人学不来的天赋，也使他不会因为短期的股价波动而心慌或激动，做出错误的投资判断。
他勤读企业财报，慎选投资标的，只信自己的知识经验，不听小道消息；他不投资复杂的产业、用低廉价格长期投超智秀企业，以避免投资风险、降低经营工本。
I had to practice to have his character, good in discipline, calm, not to be too exciting when market/stock rise, or not to panic when share drop, read Fincial Report consistently. Only invest in outstanding company to reduce investing cost.
Read some artical , how much does Citi Worth.
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