Thursday, August 26, 2010

Hold - TGuan




Quite regret that i didnt sold off when it touch 1.12 and buy back now. My AVP is 0.825. Is buy and hold in long run will be profitable? I do not know.

TGuan price has been dropping in the recent market correction. Maybe i should consider to buy somemore? I see value in this stocks, but market are irrational. 0.825 is definetely a good buy. Another point of view, i pay 0.825 for all the inventories, it still give me 0.22 cents cash per share, after netting off everything.


Ok. Back to its finacial report 2nd quater
share issue 105,204

Revenue increase to 111,067 from 102,139

1. Inventories - 85,332 / 105 204 = 0.811
2. Cash - 34050 /105 204 = 0.323
3. Cash - 7438 / 105204 = 0.07
4. Short term dep inc - 7438 from 2950
5. Reserve Inc - 106,919 from 99202
6. Short Tem Borrowing Inc -30789 from 22,332 prev
7. Long Term Borrowing Inc - 5143 from 209 prev
8. Trade R = 68192
9. Trade P =52216

TR - TP - LTB - STB = 68192 - 52216 -5143 - 30789 = -19956
Debt per share = -0.18


Quatertly EPS = 4
NTA - increase 8 cent to 2.02 from 1.94.
Dividen = 5%


2nd quarter earning is no suprise . I just take the minimum assumption, first and 2nd quarter EPS 9cents, 3rd and 4 quarter market no good make 6cent. EPS 15cent. This stock shld value at least 105 cents. If 3 and 4 quarter eps reach average 8 cent. One year eps 17. If 3 and 4 quarter doing well then eps 19.

valuation
15 x 7 = 105cent
17x 7 = 119cent
19 x 7 = 133cent


The sales normally peak during festival seasons. Currently market sentiment no good. I decided to hold one more quarter.

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