Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Genting International review + A little bit of Investing physcology + The important of low debt strong cashflow

I come across CARI Forum tonight. I read a thread from 老散記事薄之.......雲頂國際。. This was a true story from 老散 who buy Genting since 2007 at 0.9 ,recorded the pyscology of holding from 0.9 all the way to 0.3, in middle somebody told him to sold during 0.3 (sound very sure , but historical tell it was an irrational recommend to ask for sold at 0.3 during 2/2008) but luckily his pyscology was strong enought to hold the stock till 01/2009 . It prove that the sell of 1.2 for 老散 was right. He was a humble but experience guy.

(一直提醒自己股市里谁都不可以信,要靠自己的分析,技术,经验和坚持。看看megan案件,再看看叫老散卖的那个功夫不到家却自认专家的,或那种自吹自擂的好像那个什么。。。众人皆醉我独醒的这个那个家伙,还有那种叫你去抬货的分析员,用意好可是技术不足的旁观者意见,什么事天天都在发生。)


I was hesitating wheter to buy this stocks or not. But it seemed that this is not worth to buy. They estimated after rights issue it has 10billion stocks, net profit 0.5 billion, it translate to eps only 0.04. At the current price of 0.89 , its pe is 22 times, way to expensive. So the sell decision for laosan is correct, he sold during pe30 times

Here is some of its quote which i find useful when deciding wheter to buy this stocks or not during correction. Seemed like, it is out of my list. I can concertrate more on Citi if it happen to retrace back to USD 3.2.

通告对股价有没有影响,有。
今天不是跌了吗?
雲頂國際发售的股票是百多亿的股,给它每年赚5亿eps也只有0.04分(大约而已)0.04分股价1.20不高吗。
原本最理想的是弄到赌牌大家情绪很好才来开幕那就是一级棒了。
赌牌没拿到又开幕了已经cool down了情绪了,再来一个这样的通告,大家还不找借口出场还等什么。
雲頂國際已经没有什么看头了,以后股价会如何跑就要回归基本面了。
不过,分析员指出,圣淘沙名胜世界的营业额预测,是根据4大假设,即新加坡的旅客人数、新加坡的赌客人数、市场份额,以及每名赌客的开销。


Infact what 老散 said is true. Analyst only estimate 0.25 billion eps first year,
0.28 2nd year , 0.31 3rd year, 0.34 4 yr, 0.37 fifth year.


It translate to eps only0.022 cent. 0.022cent eps over price 0.9 , pe = 40 unreasonabble expensive. I think this will not be my cup of tea as it doesnt fufill my buy criteria look, it owe huge debt , interest expenses are too high. Just like scomi, big capital, huge debt, peanut return. My business experiences and sense told me, no matter how market fluctuate i shld avoid this type of company.

Even it is high roe and high debt i should avoid. Look at LCL, during 2007 it was high roe a lot of project come, huge debt, but promising sales and increasing revenue, but no cash flow. When middle east hits, it doesnt have cashflow to sustain the business worst still all his building become bad debt. Therefore, first thing on margin of safety is -- Cash Flow!


4大因素影响赚幅
2010财年的净利预测将达2亿8200万新元(6亿9090万令吉),而5年复合增长率估计达到30%。主要归功于旅客人数的增长,圣淘沙名胜世界达到经济规模并加强效率后,赚幅将会提高。peanut earning as compared to share price

No comments:

Post a Comment