Wednesday, March 31, 2010

What can you do if you are jobless.

You can learn a lot by observing people.

Learn to understand your existing relationships – with your family members, friends, and relatives.

Move with them closely, express and communicate with love as if you were meeting them for the first time and as though this would be the last time you are going to meet them.

Contribute something to them lovingly. Help them in any manner you can. It need not be financial.

This will boost your self confidence and enthusiasm. Normally one feels confident and enthusiastic only after getting the job. Now, you are acquiring this state before getting the job.

This will also make you a better person. You will also learn how to relate to your colleagues and superiors when you move to your future workplace.

When you are ready to learn anything new, then this period would become a period of relaxation, instead of a period of frustration.

Trading diary 1/4/2009

Not sure can close the position in C at 5 Dollar. Not sure can fully exit market . But have to, at least ,wait. If unsuccessful , lost too much ,i will hold it even after 19 April 2010, but first things is before 19 April.

Dont think have any chance to close Scomimr and Scomi position this month. So most likely will close it next quater , shld be arnd 15 May 2010. Anyway not much , only 10k. If losses will hold till next year.

Didnt buy in at the right time and buy the right stock in Bursa, too much buy based on rumour.
Learn a lesson.

NYSE is reaching 11k. Wow, i sense some dangerous. PIGS, aid withdrawn... Sometimes, retreat is also a good strategy.

Monday, March 29, 2010

冷眼分享集: 先处战地者逸

出自《冷眼分享集》

孙子曰:“凡先处战地而待敌者逸(佚),后处战地而趋战者劳”(孙子兵法“虚实篇”)。
(白话译文:孙子说:“凡先到战场等待敌人的就安逸,后到战场投入战斗的就疲劳。”)
孙子这两句话中最重要的两个字是“逸”和“劳”。“逸” 就是安逸,从容不迫;“劳”就是疲劳,疲于奔命。

甲乙两军对垒,要在一个战场决一死战。甲军提早20天到达战场,有足够的时间了解地形,构筑好工事,作好如何迎击,如何歼敌,如何撤退等的准备,而士兵又有足够的时间休息,养精蓄锐,以给予敌人以迎头痛击。由于时间充足,他们可以从容不迫地备战,这就是“逸”。
大师,你六毛钱买钢股成了经典


乙军远道而来,一到战场,士兵已精疲力倦,由于马上就要投入战斗,根本没有时间了解战地形势,更不要说策划战略了,这种打法,兵士疲于奔命,这就是“劳”。
太爱听消息,太没信心,太爱杀进杀出,徒劳无功,我就是劳,我要改变。
甲军准备充足,以逸待劳,胜算自然较高。乙军以疲惫之师,仓促作战,胜算自然较低。

利润是战利品
股市就是一个战场,买方和卖方,就是两支对垒的军队。一方得利,是另一方的损失。例如买方以2令吉买进一只股票,此股涨至3令吉,买方赚1令吉,卖方就损失了1令吉的利润,买方是胜利者。同样的,如果卖方以5令吉把一只股票卖给买方,股价跌至3令吉,买方亏损2令吉,则卖方是胜利者
从未那没想过,所以一直以来我都是输的那一方


利润,就是买卖两方的战利品,是买卖两方斗智斗力所要卤获的标的物。
对,买股的目的就是要利润。



军事之战和股市之战,其实极为相似,都是“凡先处战地而待敌者逸,后处战地而趋战者劳”。

在股市中,绝大多数的投资者都是“后处战地而趋战者”。对阿,我就是喜欢忙从,懒惰做功课,最后一份中杀进。我要改变


当股市沉静时,他们按兵不动,直到股市狂升,股价大涨时才冲进股市,仓促作战,由于行动仓促,备战工作不足,结果是屡犯错误,搞到损兵折将,铩羽而归。
他们在股市中抢进杀出,终日提心吊胆,生活在炼狱中,这就是孙子所说的“劳”。如果“劳”而有获,还算值得,但是,如果劳而无功,不但无功,而且满身刀伤,怎么值得?然而投资者却趋之若鹜,乐此不疲,实在匪夷所思。

其实,只要投资者改弦易辙,采取孙子所说的方法,先处战地以等待敌人的到来,则不但可以轻而易举的击败来犯的敌人,卤获丰富的战利品,同时又可以过着安逸的生活。

先处战地而待敌人到来,有两个好处:
1)你有足够的时间,作好战斗的准备。
在股市之战中,你有足够的时间做好功课,考虑更周密,犯错的机会自然减到最低。
减少错误,等于提高胜算。

2)你可以享受安逸的生活。投资不再是一件烦恼的事。
那么,要怎样才能做到“先处战地者逸”呢?
很简单,只要做人“有求必应”就可以了。
所谓“有求必应”就是人家要什么,你就给他什么。

有求必应则发
当股市暴跌时,投资者惊慌失措,他们不计成本,在股市中贱价售股,要收回资金;这时候,你就顺应他们的要求,给他金钱,接受他的股票。

当公牛发狂,股价涨到离谱的高峰时,人人进场狂追,他们要的是股票,不要金钱,这时,你就顺应他们的要求,把股票卖给他,接受他的金钱。你这样做,就是有求必应,有求必应的人,就是好人,好人有好心,好心有好报,你这样做,准会发达。
阿弥陀佛,符合我的人生要求,那我可以有更多时间念佛学佛

“有求必应”的做法,其实就是反向。

“先处战地以待敌”其实就是比对手先走一步,这一步可能只是一小步,但战利品可大得惊人。例如在去年这个时候,金融海啸蹂躏下,股市疮痍满目,如果你在那时买进股票,等于“先处战地”,今天的战利品大得惊人。
获利时间较长

这种“先处战地”的策略,应用在股票上,效果如响斯应,试举例说明:
1)当经济衰退时,大胆投资,等待经济复苏。
2)在熊市中,“先处战地”,低价买好股,等待公牛回头。
3) 棕油价低沉,买棕油股。
4)钢铁厂生产过剩,钢材大跌,买钢铁股。
5)夹板价到底,开始回升,买夹板股。
6) 受去年金融海啸冲击,一些高价买进原料的建材股大亏,以后不再发生,今年开始恢复盈利,可买。
7)别人看不起的冷门股,价值被严重低估,可买,等待别人发现它们。
这样的例子很多,投资者只要养成“先处战地”的思维,应用起来,自然得心应手

这种策略的缺点,如果也算是缺点的话,就是等待获利的时间较长,例如夹板价格回暖了,但夹板股的盈利,要一年以后才公布,你必须有等待一两年的耐性,才能得利。
优点是由于买得早,买价常常极低,风险小,利润高。

时间就是金钱,此言不谬。

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Trading pyscology... Be the Lord of The Ring?


Ok.. I had made my exit plan. Its time to test my physcology wheter i can carry out as per plan. Exit C, then close the position in bursa without losses


Always tell myself that trading is full of fear and greed. Be the lord of the Ring. Not to control by the ring. Shan always told me that believe in myself ... she is sure i can do it. One day, i want to be the real investment Guru.

Need to draw a plan, trading strategy, cant blindly follow the good/bad news from the market. I will exit, if so lucky to have chance for it to reach 5 dollar. Im selling doesnt mean that i wont buy back, maybe i would buy back someday?

waiting... is a part of life, waiting and holding is a pratice in stocks, be tough my dear friends

Market Observation 23/03/10

Volume spike in Scomi. I think Scomi,Scomi-la and Scomi Marine is going to deliver real soon. Hopefully in less than a month.

Hopefully can get back my money without losses and close the position. For foreign stocks C , and local stocks Scomi-la, will likely cash out 50% before or during 15 May. Target price reach , watever come first.

Tell myself , history repeat itself on June - Aug. I think it shld provide a good opp.

Always rememeber SAFETY FIRST.. earn money on margin of safety.

Patience ,hold wait, if you think buy and sell volume are too huge, not in your price favour, hold it , dun look at the real quote. Hold for long, for speculating stocks , miracle does happen, then 1 day, suddenly all the buy n sell dissaper and price shoot up like rocket. Please make sure that time you had the stocks in you hand. This was my experience for 7 years in market.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Investing Strategy & Planning 2010

Read frm http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

If you remember I stated that that would not be the case in 2009 and was largely proven correct. 2009 was unusual because I thought that the recovery was underway and that too much funds was still sidelined. This year, I think we would do well to stick to the rule of thumb: Sell In May & Go Away.


There is a familiar saying in capital markets "Sell in May and go away", made popular by author Jeffrey Hirsch who publishes the Stock Trader's Almanac. As I have argued before, in an average 12 months, you'd be lucky to have two periods of bullish phases, each lasting 3-6 weeks. The rest of the time will be punctuated by false rallies and bear traps, or just plain inactivity.

To sell in May and return after October is a good rule of the thumb, especially for "long only" players. In a revealing study: an investor who placed US$10,000 in the Dow average at the end of April each year since 1950 and sold at the end of October would have a net loss of US$272, while someone doing the opposite would have gained an astounding US$534,323. So, taking May-October off may not be just a good for your health but also saves you a lot of stress, plus improves your job performance smartly.

Not sure i can sell my holdings. Sad.. still in lost. Havent see any sign of recovery. Hope can get back at least 25k before May without losses or little earning and reenter again during WC thats shld be arnd July. If losses too heavy, i dont think i will exit and i shld be the long term shareholders of the company. Haha!

Investing Study 22/03/2010

Read some article from investment Guru "Cold Eyes" agreed with its point of view.

Investing must used the simplest method. Growth of a company is important , but as a investor we should focus on the return of the co , for the price we pay to buy it.

Simple example he quoted. If we are planting a fruit tree, what we focus is how much fruits the trees can give us. But not how tall it grow or how big , or how many tree leaves it had.

I strongly agreed. If the company achieve very good roe every year, but all the money it used is used for CAPEX purposed, it doesnt benefit retail investor at all. Its just like watching a tree with a lot of leaves but never bear frutis.Defeat the prupose of investing.

If a company acheive moderate earning, with simple business model (which we understand) and give reasonable dividen. It is a good fruit tree which bear fruit. Our effort pay in this kind of company.


He recomended NCB, it was a good co. But he also mentioned that should buy in the stock with reasonable price. Yes i agree, no matter how goood a stocks is, if we want to eat the sweetest fruit, we must plant the correct tree( cash rich and willing to pay dividen, patienly wait (buy the tree and sell it at right price)

I was thinking,it was not at attractive price right now. Havent really go thru its financial report. but in my monitor list. Another undervalue stocks he mentioned. Eupe alot of undervalue assest. Both in monitor list.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Citi News

An encouraging news from Citi.

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) stock is maintaining its strength, after the Fed announced it would hold the line on interest rate hikes. Now the big question for investors seems to concern what Citigroup plans on doing for profit. The winds of financial regulation are blowing mightily through Washington, so cautious investors wonder just how this will affect Citigroup. The financial regulation that is expected to come later hasn’t hit just yet. Therefore Citigroup is maintaining certain proprietary trading operations that are contributing to the bottom line. Citigroup moved most of these units to Citi Holdings, where they’re not expected to get any additional capital from C, but in the mean time some of these units are still making money. Financial regulation could bring an end to these operations forever, but in the mean-time, a company has gotta eat,” Steve Ferguson Reports From Times Of The Internet.

Ferguson goes on to say, “One sector that Citi wants to earn more money from is the hot-earning ETF division. ETFs are now extremely popular with investors and Citigroup is upgrading its back office support for the products. Yesterday the company announced its appointment of Jeffrey McCarthy as Global ETF Product Head in its Securities and Fund Services business (SFS).”
“With its global network and reach, Citi is uniquely positioned to help promote ETF product innovation and distribution in domestic and international markets,” said Neeraj Sahai, Global Head of Citi’s Securities and Fund Services, in a statement. “Jeff’s extensive market experience and product expertise will complement Citi’s emerging market capabilities and help enable our asset manager clients launch new ETF products on a comprehensive basis.”

“Citigroup already offers a dizzying array of services to the ETF sales channels, and looks ready to expand even further into the arena. With ETFs growing rapidly, Citi has identified the area as one with fast growth potential. In order to continue to engineer a turnaround, that’s exactly what C needs to do. They have to abandon the notions of what businesses were bringing in big cash in the past, and move on to greener pastures of what is actually making money now. Citi’s Global Transaction Services is one example of the reach the company still maintains. This division has over 65,000 customers and $12.1 trillion of assets under management,” Ferguson Reports.

Trading position

My Position...


Almost all in red, Hope can exit these position by end of May or before 7 Jun

Citi avp 2600 @ 4.2 (If can acheive 5 dollar i will sell) RM37.2
Scomi-la 33600 @ 0.116(Hope next quarter will b gd middle of May) RM3.897
Scomimr 14000 @ 0.468(Hope next quarter will b gd middle May) RM6.552
Shld be better , we must consider the selling of CHoffshore SGD65M
TGuan 18000 @ 0.81 (Will decide to buy in more or not on July ) RM14.58

Want to buy a shop lots to collect rental at the right time.

Monday, March 15, 2010

Market Trend and Trading Strategy 15/3/2010.

Market continue to in side way mode. Most of my investment are still in red. Havent think of the strategy to encounter. Most likely will treat it as Fixed Deposit and maybe keep for a year.

For my investment which doesnt generate dividen and its earnings record are not impressive. I will plan to swap and cut lost when there are opportunities.

This year plan to hold banking stocks in US, Gaming Stocks in Singapore and Manufacturing Stocks in Msia. Will consolidate all my position,reallocate once if there is an opportunity.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Citi part2

I read some news in yahoo finance and the prediction of analyst in newspaper. Analyst predicted there will be 20billion earning in year 2012. How much it will value? earing 20billion eps = 1.00 dollar per share. using an average performance of a stocks on pe benchmark = 20. Share price should be around 20dollar. 20 Dollar in 2012? Yes , you hear me right. Wow, my 2600 share will value at 52000 USD if i hold till that time. which is equalvalent to RM176,800 in 2 years times. I started to day dreaming..... I think i better stop daydreaming and monitor closely when John Paulsen and Soros exit. God Bless Me. Amitabha!


Citigroup Inc. says it's heading back toward sustained profitability after two years that saw the bank lose billions of dollars and be bailed out by the government.

CEO Vikram Pandit said Thursday that Citigroup has overhauled its operations, shed money-losing businesses in the U.S. and shifted its focus overseas.

"Citi today is a fundamentally different company than it was two years ago," Pandit told an investor conference in New York. "We are well positioned to return to sustained profitability."

Investors embraced his bullish view, sending Citigroup shares up 5.6 percent to $4.18. The stock is up nearly 20 percent in the past week.

Pandit didn't give a timetable for returning to profitability. But he said Citigroup, the hardest hit U.S. bank during the credit crisis, sees big growth in emerging markets including Latin America and Asia, which generated about half of Citigroup's 2009 revenue.

In 2009, Citigroup lost $1.61 billion, or 80 cents per share. It lost $27.68 billion, or $5.61 per share in 2008. Most of the losses were from soured residential and other consumer loans.

Going forward, Pandit said the bank will focus on client businesses in three core areas of its Citicorp division -- investment banking, consumer banking and transaction services like credit cards.

Citigroup split itself into two parts last year -- Citicorp and Citi Holdings, the division holding noncore, riskier assets including the mortgage backed securities that undermined the bank and other financial institutions.

Pandit said the bank would continue selling off Citi Holdings, which had $547 billion worth of assets at the end of 2009.

His remarks came a year after reports surfaced that Citigroup had returned to profitability in the first two months of 2009. The reports sent the Dow Jones industrial average up 379 points on March 10, 2009, pulling the overall market off of its 12-year lows.

Citing Pandit's upbeat outlook, prominent banking analyst Dick Bove raised his price target on Citigroup's stock from $3.75 per share to $4.25.

"Mr. Pandit's concepts ... are simple: Grow overseas and cut back operations domestically. Focus on client profitability rather than product profitability," Bove wrote in a research note. "I believe this program will work."
Still, some analysts have expressed concern over how the bank will perform once it cuts ties with the government.

Citigroup received $45 billion in government bailout money at the height of the financial crisis. It raised $20 billion in December to help repay the money it received as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The remaining $25 billion was converted to stock last fall, giving the government what is now a 27 percent ownership stake.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Citi Shares

Recent move was unusual. Anyway, i had 2600unit in hand purchase @ avp 4.2. Purchase price are a bit too high. But dont plan to sell yet. My buy price are similar to what paulsen bought,300million at 3rd quater of 2009. I think the stocks shld be ok as it coming dwn frm 55 dollar till now.

Havent think of what price to sell. It was really an exciting knowing thatJohn Paulsen and recently George Soros had bought in quite a lot

Paulson & Co. reported a stake equal to 506.7 million shares in New York-based Citigroup, up from about 300 million at the end of the third quarter, according to a government filing yesterday. Mindich’s Eton Park Capital Management LP acquired 138 million shares, making the company its largest holding. Soros Fund Management LLC reported 94.7 million shares worth $313.4 million, a filing showed.

We have paulson, fairholme, NWQ, Appaloosa, Eton Park, OZ, third point, jumped or added C last quarter. http://fundville.com/stock/C/CITIGROUP-I...

I think C is going to do well.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Top Dividen Payout Co 4/3/2010

Co RM Price
BAT 2.36 42.5
Digi 1.78 22.54
Nestle 1.5 34.4
CCB 1.3 4.18
UTDPLT 0.7 13.64
LPI 0.675 13.22
Dlady 0.656 12
PBBank 0.55 11.16
Shell 0.5 10.6
Amway 0.48 7.3
NST 0.48 2.12
LMCement 0.38 6.41
Pharma 0.37 4.46
PIE 0.35 4.00

Pending
Umcca
Bkawan
Misc
Ijm
Klk
Hai-0
F&N
Petdag
GAB
chintek

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Eksons

Lets analyze Financial Report for Eksons

Share 164,213

EPS - 10.97
Previous Quarter -13.95
current asset - 266,274
current liability - 131,894
NTA - 2.03
Inventories - 80146
Recevables - 41283 ( Increase from 19125 last year)
Cash - 14,773 ( Reduc from 45253 2008)
Efficiency ration 30204 /207 481 x 365 = 53.20days (efficient, however trade receivable increase)
Trade payables - 21254 (increase 08, 14884)
Borrowing - 22222 (increase from 08, 9485)
No dividen

cash per share 14773/164,213 = 0.089
term deposit 22287 / 164,213 = 0.13

cash per share = 0.22
inventories = 0.488
assumed that trade receivable net off trade payable and borrowing.

over value at 0.88, no dividen, not recomended