Investment Homework - Sealink

Sealink Reading 2009

0.33 billion market cap , but only able to do 0.299 billion business. Buisness Capability is translate to 1 to 1

mp 0.67
eps 10.2
pe 6.69
share issue 500,000,000
revenue 192,777
PAR 0.50
NTA 0.856


Current Assets
TR 26403
Othr Receivable 67167
cash balance 49554
tax recover 1172


non current liabilities
long term borrowing 70156
payable 830
defer tax laibilities 48193


current liabilities
Short term borrowings 209,669
Trade payables 35,624
Provision for maintenance warranties 1,120
Due to customer on contracts 9,630
Other payables 46,068
Provision for taxation 5,710


receievable drop from FY 2009 26,403 to FY 2008 43,503

receivable turnover ratio = average tr / revenue x 365
= 118475 / 192,777 x 365
= 224days (not effiecient )
Debt
Long term borrowings increase 2009 70,156 2008 62,855
Short term borrowings increase 2009 209,669 2008 207,402

Trade payables 2009 35,624 2008 63,763
Other payables 2009 46,068 2008 36,250

debt per share 328,018/ 500,000 = 0.656 cents
cash per share 49554 / 500,000 =0.099
inventories 357316 / 500,000 = 0.71
(Its not manufacturing co , thus inventories doesnt translate to cash)

Trade receivables - Trades payables = (26403 + 67167) - ( 35624 + 46068 + 830)
= 11048
How much it worth per share = 0.022

Conclusion The problem with the company is that its trade recievable too high and collection too slow, it was about 220days,debt are too high ,thus it will have cash problem to operate. Not worth to buy as it was running on high debt model, collection are too slow, thus it will have cashflow problems moreover business operation is not effiecient, it owe a lots of debts which is 0.65cent for its share. It doesnt generate max return looking at the market cap , for 1 cent it generate 1 cent only. Definetely not a value investing stocks.

Genting International review + A little bit of Investing physcology + The important of low debt strong cashflow

I come across CARI Forum tonight. I read a thread from 老散記事薄之.......雲頂國際。. This was a true story from 老散 who buy Genting since 2007 at 0.9 ,recorded the pyscology of holding from 0.9 all the way to 0.3, in middle somebody told him to sold during 0.3 (sound very sure , but historical tell it was an irrational recommend to ask for sold at 0.3 during 2/2008) but luckily his pyscology was strong enought to hold the stock till 01/2009 . It prove that the sell of 1.2 for 老散 was right. He was a humble but experience guy.

(一直提醒自己股市里谁都不可以信，要靠自己的分析，技术，经验和坚持。看看megan案件，再看看叫老散卖的那个功夫不到家却自认专家的，或那种自吹自擂的好像那个什么。。。众人皆醉我独醒的这个那个家伙，还有那种叫你去抬货的分析员，用意好可是技术不足的旁观者意见，什么事天天都在发生。）

I was hesitating wheter to buy this stocks or not. But it seemed that this is not worth to buy. They estimated after rights issue it has 10billion stocks, net profit 0.5 billion, it translate to eps only 0.04. At the current price of 0.89 , its pe is 22 times, way to expensive. So the sell decision for laosan is correct, he sold during pe30 times

Here is some of its quote which i find useful when deciding wheter to buy this stocks or not during correction. Seemed like, it is out of my list. I can concertrate more on Citi if it happen to retrace back to USD 3.2.

通告对股价有没有影响，有。
今天不是跌了吗？
雲頂國際发售的股票是百多亿的股，给它每年赚5亿eps也只有0.04分（大约而已）0.04分股价1.20不高吗。
原本最理想的是弄到赌牌大家情绪很好才来开幕那就是一级棒了。
赌牌没拿到又开幕了已经cool down了情绪了，再来一个这样的通告，大家还不找借口出场还等什么。
雲頂國際已经没有什么看头了，以后股价会如何跑就要回归基本面了。
不过，分析员指出，圣淘沙名胜世界的营业额预测，是根据4大假设，即新加坡的旅客人数、新加坡的赌客人数、市场份额，以及每名赌客的开销。


Infact what 老散 said is true. Analyst only estimate 0.25 billion eps first year,
0.28 2nd year , 0.31 3rd year, 0.34 4 yr, 0.37 fifth year.

It translate to eps only0.022 cent. 0.022cent eps over price 0.9 , pe = 40 unreasonabble expensive. I think this will not be my cup of tea as it doesnt fufill my buy criteria look, it owe huge debt , interest expenses are too high. Just like scomi, big capital, huge debt, peanut return. My business experiences and sense told me, no matter how market fluctuate i shld avoid this type of company.

Even it is high roe and high debt i should avoid. Look at LCL, during 2007 it was high roe a lot of project come, huge debt, but promising sales and increasing revenue, but no cash flow. When middle east hits, it doesnt have cashflow to sustain the business worst still all his building become bad debt. Therefore, first thing on margin of safety is -- Cash Flow!

4大因素影响赚幅
2010财年的净利预测将达2亿8200万新元（6亿9090万令吉），而5年复合增长率估计达到30%。主要归功于旅客人数的增长，圣淘沙名胜世界达到经济规模并加强效率后，赚幅将会提高。peanut earning as compared to share price

Warrent Buffet Simple Investing on Value Investing

Today read an artical newspaper. I think this shld be one of the best things in value investing. And is going to be my investing philosophy and policy over the rest of my years of investing. The general priciple in stock selection and investing will be.

波克夏不只是巴菲特的投资总部，更是他的管理实验场。巴菲特曾在1980年代末，刊登一则广告，宣告波克夏的5项购并条件：


1.规模够大（公司税后盈余至少1000万美元）； Stronng Company, Top of the industry

2.有够高的股东权益报酬率（ROE），低负债、甚至零负债； High ROE, Low Debt and 0 Debt

3.良好的管理团队（我们不提供管理人员）； Good Management

4.单纯的企业（若涉及太多科技，则超出我们所能理解的范围）； Simple Industry

5.出价（若价格不明，我们不会浪费自己或卖主的时间讨论）。Our buy price (undervalue)


从这里可以看出，巴菲特只重视两件事：「管理金钱」和「领导人才」。


股神巴菲特：充满热情、坚持原则与纪律


巴菲特从小就对理财有天分。5岁开端卖可口可乐、11岁开端投资股票；求学时申请哈佛商学院（Harvard Business School）被拒绝，转而进入哥伦比亚大学商学院（Columbia Business School），跟随投资大师班杰明·葛兰姆（Benjamin Graham）学财务投资。


30岁左右，就因为帮众亲友管理资金，而成为百万富翁。


因为会管钱，所以更善用钱。富豪巴菲特在生活上异常节省，他不买豪宅、名车，衣服、鞋子都是穿破了才换；甚至连最爱喝的可口可乐，都为了求便宜而以「箱」为购买单位。

同样的风格，也反映在巴菲特保守的经营策略上。巴菲特的高度纪律和冷静的性格，是一般人学不来的天赋，也使他不会因为短期的股价波动而心慌或激动，做出错误的投资判断。


他勤读企业财报，慎选投资标的，只信自己的知识经验，不听小道消息；他不投资复杂的产业、用低廉价格长期投超智秀企业，以避免投资风险、降低经营工本。

I had to practice to have his character, good in discipline, calm, not to be too exciting when market/stock rise, or not to panic when share drop, read Fincial Report consistently. Only invest in outstanding company to reduce investing cost.

说巴菲特节俭，还不如说他脑海里从不停地在计算「投资报酬率」──希望让每一分钱都能发挥最大的价值，并反馈给股东。


合伙事业负责人出身的巴菲特，时时把股东放在第一位。当他评估企业绩效时，看的并非每股盈余（EPS），而是股东权益报酬率（ROE）。他坚信，企业若无法将股东的资金做有效的运用，就应该将现金还给股东，让他们查找更好的投资机会。而波克夏年年打败大盘的绩效表现，正是巴菲特忠于股东托付的最佳证明。

向巴菲特的管理学习。

认识巴菲特的第一个关键字，是波克夏·海瑟威（Berkshire Hathaway）。40多年前，它原本只是巴菲特投资的一家小纺织厂。多年来，巴菲特通过它进行各种购并及投资，最后成为一家旗下拥有77家企业、员工数近30万名的巨型控股公司。


波克夏不只是巴菲特的投资总部，更是他的管理实验场。巴菲特曾在1980年代末，刊登一则广告，宣告波克夏的5项购并条件：


1.规模够大（公司税后盈余至少1000万美元）；

2.有够高的股东权益报酬率（ROE），低负债、甚至零负债；

3.良好的管理团队（我们不提供管理人员）；

4.单纯的企业（若涉及太多科技，则超出我们所能理解的范围）；

5.出价（若价格不明，我们不会浪费自己或卖主的时间讨论）。


从这里可以看出，巴菲特只重视两件事：「管理金钱」和「领导人才」。


股神巴菲特：充满热情、坚持原则与纪律


巴菲特从小就对理财有天分。5岁开端卖可口可乐、11岁开端投资股票；求学时申请哈佛商学院（Harvard Business School）被拒绝，转而进入哥伦比亚大学商学院（Columbia Business School），跟随投资大师班杰明·葛兰姆（Benjamin Graham）学财务投资。


30岁左右，就因为帮众亲友管理资金，而成为百万富翁。


因为会管钱，所以更善用钱。富豪巴菲特在生活上异常节省，他不买豪宅、名车，衣服、鞋子都是穿破了才换；甚至连最爱喝的可口可乐，都为了求便宜而以「箱」为购买单位。


同样的风格，也反映在巴菲特保守的经营策略上。巴菲特的高度纪律和冷静的性格，是一般人学不来的天赋，也使他不会因为短期的股价波动而心慌或激动，做出错误的投资判断。


他勤读企业财报，慎选投资标的，只信自己的知识经验，不听小道消息；他不投资复杂的产业、用低廉价格长期投超智秀企业，以避免投资风险、降低经营工本。


说巴菲特节俭，还不如说他脑海里从不停地在计算「投资报酬率」──希望让每一分钱都能发挥最大的价值，并反馈给股东。


合伙事业负责人出身的巴菲特，时时把股东放在第一位。当他评估企业绩效时，看的并非每股盈余（EPS），而是股东权益报酬率（ROE）。他坚信，企业若无法将股东的资金做有效的运用，就应该将现金还给股东，让他们查找更好的投资机会。而波克夏年年打败大盘的绩效表现，正是巴菲特忠于股东托付的最佳证明。


CEO巴菲特：找对人，就放手授权


波克夏旗下有77家公司，各个都是所处产业的领导者，也是波克夏优异绩效的背后推手。但这些一流企业的运行长及专业经理人，却共同服膺于一个领导者：巴菲特。


巴菲特处理人事议题分外细腻。前述购并原则中说得很清楚：波克夏不提供管理人才，被购并公司必须「自备」优秀人员。这意味着，经营团队的能力与操守，是巴菲特决定投资的关键之一。而一旦决定买入一家公司，巴菲特则会绝对信任原本的经营团队，不会安插「国王的人马」；他也相当授权，不会动辄要求运行长们到总部报告绩效。


对照来看，许多企业购并新事业后的第一个的举动，就是立刻更换管理阶层以「宣示主权」，巴菲特的放手（hands off）与尊重，更显示出他的睿智与气度。他这么做的道理很简单：当初正是这一群经理人创造了高绩效的企业，才吸引波克夏投资，所以何不让这一群好人才，继续为公司创造高绩效呢？


「尊重经营者」的好名声，使得巴菲特在购并谈判时，往往握有较高的胜算：在竞争对手愿意出两倍价钱的情况下，许多经营者仍愿意将苦心创立的公司，以低价卖给波克夏。


领导者巴菲特：诚实、幽默、赞美每个人


如今世人眼中的巴菲特，是广受经理人爱戴的领导者。然而，青年巴菲特却是不善交际，一紧张就跟对方大谈股票经的「投资宅男」。为了克服这个障碍，他特地去上卡内基课程（Carnegie），学习沟通表达技巧。


卡内基强调的「名字是最悦耳的声音」「以赞美替换批评」「坦白认错」「避免争执」等30项原则，不仅协助巴菲特克服了公开演讲的挑战，更被他日后在团队领导上，运用得淋漓尽致。


无论是股东会或公司年报，巴菲特总会把握每一个机会，连名带姓地赞美旗下的经理人；他用幽默感和感激，数度化解股东会上的冲突；一旦发现自己犯错，他也立刻放下「股神」的身段，公开向股东道歉。在巴菲特温暖的领导下，波克夏就像是个大家庭：被购并的企业运行长们，除了退休外，没有任何人脱产或跳槽竞争对手。


《经理人》编辑团队在阅读近30本关于巴菲特的中英文著作后，蓦然发觉：巴菲特在投资上的成功，来自于他在管理上的通透；原来在「股神」和「首富」的表象之下，巴菲特也堪称实至名归的「管理大师」。

To be a successful investor

In order to be a successful investor, one must develop their own skills set, to be calm all time, during buy, so not to buy too high, during sell so will not sell too low, have to patiencely wait during sell , determination and pyscology must be strong.

I had closed all my position, but i still think that market are way too hot, klse is in the 4th week of bulls, RM1.6billion value of stocks traded. It is a sell to me , not a buy . I , like most of the investor keep repeating my mistakes. Keep on want to buy when have cash back, just cannot sit down calmly on a month or two and doesnt achieve the maximum return.

I had said earlier, sell in May and go away. I had done it in April. So i should go for a holiday now. Wait i come back on July and see what can i do. Three months stay away from stocks in order to achieve the maximum return i could have.

Sometimes waiting is also a best strategy. This round i didnt earn much, the starting of the plan is not very correct, the middle of the plan is correct, the ending of the plan also not very correct, thats why earn peanuts.


I shldnt give up, i am adoping my own strategy on the combination of hutu and brother theory. I hope i had a chance to get maximum return next round.

Farewell market for the time being.

Stock Clearing

Suprisingly enough , Today. I had cleared all the stocks in hands. Citi i didnt do according to plan. ( Lord of the ring plan - success half, but fail another half) I sold all before it reaching 5 Dollars. Now , only left Tguan in hand.

Scomi -la - clear at 0.12 , bought 0.1167
Scomimr - cleared at 0.475 bought 0.467
Citi - cleared 4.32 bought 4.2


DJI almost break 11,000. It retraced back before touching 11k. It should break 11k before May. But I think its time to say goodbye to the stocks. Initially i thought i could have to wait untill May. But seemed it was a bit earlier now. No regret because i didnt lose any money now.

Citi, i didnt wait untill the announcement of it Financial Reports next week . I think by next week it shld break 5 Dollar. I sold it because i dont want to rush to sell if there is any bad news in the market , and as we all known treasury are going to sell stocks its 27% after 19 April. Didnt sell the highest , instead at one of the lowest point of the day.

I think i shldnt be greed. Imagine how i felt bad 3 mths ago when it hit lowest 3.15. At least now,no losses, gain a peanut but i can rest a while, and pratice on the wallstreet gold words - Sell In May and Go Away. This year Maybe Retracement will come earlier, i have some senses, market are way too hot. Before June.

Maybe will re-enter market , when there is an opptunity, somewhere in July? I dont know, but i didnt draw a timeline for it.

I always remember the the taught from one of the Guru's. You dont need to trade everyday. All you need is to find a oppotunity to enter the market at the correct timing, for the correct stocks in which might bring you 100-1000% of profit. Instead enter the market frequently/wrongly and losing 30-50% or earn only 5% for every trade.

Read some artical , how much does Citi Worth.
If Citibank can earn 1.25% to 1.5% on its assets, as Pandit predicts, then EPS could be 57 cents to 68 cents (1.25% on assets of about 1.3 trillion and shares outstanding of 28 billion). He also expects to grow assets 5% per year. These estimates assume the economy does not deteriorate. Based on these figures and assuming a 10x multiple the shares are worth at least $5.70 to $6.80. I am a little surprised at these numbers because I thought the stock was probably worth closer to $9.00. If assets grow by 5% over the next few years that would add about 3 to 4 cents in earnings per year. Using another metric - ROE, the banks might be expected to earn 10-15% which implies earnings of about 53 cents to 80 cents. Of course, the big unknown is the economy. If the economy is better than expected then loan loss reserves might be added back which would boost earnings. Analysts in aggregate estimate C will earn 4 cents this year and 34 cents in 2011. There seems to be scope for some upward revisions. However, Pandit has not given a timeline for his targets.
Out of interest, I did the same calculation for BAC - $2.25 trillion of assets and a 1.25% ROA equates to about $2.70 of EPS. Again, using a multiple of 10x means the shares are worth about $27. Incidentally a ROA of 1.5% equates to about 33 cents per share in earnings - or a share price of $33. Based on ROE the shares are worth anywhere between $22.00 to $33.00. I have heard analysts say BAC is worth about $30. Analysts are estimating BAC earns 81 cents this year and $1.99 in 2011. Again, there is room for upward revisions. One needs to be patient and hope the economy doesn't diappoint.
On these numbers, BAC has more upside than Citi and I believe is less risky. But I own both!

Study on Ajiya

One of the solid company i like. Worth to have a look if it retrace.

mp2.06
share amount : 69,223,821

total current assets
176,266

receivable
82,064

inventories
56,918

receivable
((82,064 + 84,144)/2 / 313100) x 365 = 96days ( Ok , standard)

cash
37,284

cash per share
37,248/69,224 = 0.53

borrowing
5,177


Current liabilities
Trade and other creditors
38,960
Short term borrowings
15,605
Taxation
1,203
55,768
Total liabilities
60,945

if receivable net off current liabilities, its inventory will translate to
56,918/69,224 = 0.82