6 Hutu Invest Theory

转：
糊涂在2004年网聚时曾经不自量力的写了篇极短的投机之道与出席的网友分享。
今天我就在此贴上原文，看看糊涂当年的见解中缺少了些什么？

糊涂的投机之道
1. 保本为上
- 避开垃圾股，因为除了垃圾股之外，所有的股项都是有涨有跌。
- 避开被炒家炒高的股项（价格、成交量都处于新高)。

2. 选择中小型股票
- 股本1亿零吉以下为佳。
* 想赚钱的最好方法便是将钱投入一家近几年内一直都出现盈余，而且将不断成长的小公司。”

3. 选择复苏股

4. 选择周期股
- 这些股项的周期性极强。
*注意隐蔽性资产(Intangible Asset)

5. 投机 - 寻找的是购买的理由
- 附加股、红股所带来的机会
- 业绩报告、股息所带来的机会
- 突发事件、坏消息的机会
- 投机某只股票的最佳时机就是在其他投资者疯狂的杀出该股，就好像一切都已无法挽回之际。
- 不仅注意好消息，而且特别注意坏消息，灾难性的坏消息往往能带来异乎寻常的机会
最后，我坚信“投机的机会常常都会出现，只要肯耐心等待机会的来临，一击即中也并非难事耶。”

附：公司的生命週期（抄自网络）
股利政策与成长有关，更准确地说，与公司的生命周期有关。一般而言，公司会经过四个阶段：
1． 初期成长阶段：公司常因资金不足而保留所有的盈余以支持研究工作，进行收购或添购生产设施。高年成长率就是这阶段的特色，有时甚至可达100%或更多。
2． 扩张期：公司在此阶段成长减缓，但还是非常强劲，产品在市场占有一席之地，且已达到适度的成本收益。快速扩张自然成为新目标。
3． 成熟成长期：可口可乐，迪士尼，花旗等经历数十年的成功扩张之后。由于它们的规模庞大，所以较难出现2位数的销售成长，但仍然可以使用营运但仍可以使用營運槓桿 Operating Leverage来推动盈余成长
4． 稳定期或衰退期：公司产出几乎没有成长，现金流量用来更新老旧设备，盈余成长停滞不前，而且公司几乎没有多余的利润找到其它的投资机会，投资人如果追踪公司表现许多年，就会发现成长率与股利的政策改变时可以预测的。

Goodwill Impairment Loss

When circumstances indicate that the goodwill may have become impaired, the remaining goodwill will be estimated. If the resulting estimate is less than the book value of the goodwill, a “goodwill impairment loss” is recorded. What is Goodwill Impairment Loss? How is Goodwill Impairment Loss Handled? How to calculate Goodwill Impairment Loss? How to record Goodwill Impairment Loss? This post answers the question.

[1]. The parent could record the impairment loss on its books and credit the investment in subsidiary account.

[2]. The impairment loss could be recorded only on the consolidated worksheet. This would adjust consolidated net income and produce a correct balance sheet. The only complication affects consolidated worksheets in periods subsequent to the impairment.

Suppose Company P purchased an 80% interest in Company S in 20X7 and the price resulted in goodwill of $165,000. On a future balance sheet date, say December 31, 20X9, the following information would apply to Company S:

Sophisticated equity method investment balance on December 31, 20X9 = $800,000
Estimated fair value of Company S = $900,000
Estimated fair value of net identifiable assets = $850,000



Determining if goodwill has been impaired would be calculated as shown here:





Sophisticated equity method investment balance on December 31, 20X9 = $800,000
Estimated fair value of investment, 80% x $900,000 = $720,000

Because the investment amount exceeds the fair value, goodwill is impaired, and a loss must be calculated.

The impairment entry on Company P’s books would be as follows:

[Debit]. Goodwill Impairment Loss = $125,000
[Credit]. Investment in Company S = $125,000

Wthorse - FY2009

Today bought in wthorse 1.4 x 4

why buy in? Based on analysis from investment guru Hutu

1. High DY, interim 5c, whole year 10C, tax exempted 7.14%
2. Eps 2005 to 2009 around 20cent, vy stable business , 2009 beat estimation to 25.77c, esp Q4 9.67
3. Cash per share = 0.31
4. NTA = 2.52
5. profit margin - 14.05%
6 net profit margin 10.00%

FY 09
current assets 339,310
current liabilities 131,084
long term liablilites 0 (improved)
cash 53,894 ( cash reduce, however long term liabilities 300,000 has cleared,good move!)
unit share 240,000
cash per share 53,894/240000 = 0.224c
% cash /share 0.224 /1.4 = 16 %
net cash

receivables turnover ration = net credit sales / average account receivables
whthorse = 128108/478201 x 365 = 97.78days
effiecitent


2nd brother investment technics

1.40 quality,eps 25.77, low pe = 5.43
strong cash flow, management translate cashflow to dividen, high dividen yield.
benchmark = 8-9


25.77cent x 8 = 206.16 target p9rice


charts price (march) vs eps FYend
2004 2.43 vs 0.3434 pe 7
2005 1.48 vs 0.207 pe 7
2006 1.30 vs 0.1915 pe 7
2007 1.19 vs 0.2098 pe 6 (cash 0.21)
2008 1.07 vs 0.2269 pe 5 (cash 0.27)

2009 1.4 vs 0.22*
pe = 7 , 1.54

speculate on the announcement of DY

TGUAN

I ask A, A siad this one can buy. Last time csc i also ask A, A said can buy. Must have faith he never lie to me. So What i bought today

Let me analyze
tguan x 11000 @ 0.82

why buy this?

1.Based on recomendation from investment guru's Hutu

3Q09 eps = 10.56
Projected = 15

Actual
FY09 eps = 13.51
cash per share = 0.3522
net cash company
NTA = 1.93

current asset 177,910
current liability 72,264
long term borrowing 207
cash 37,060 increase
share 105,205

cash per share 37060/105,205 = 35.22c
cash vs share % 35.2/0.82 = 42.95% --> cash rich
trade receivable acceptabe. potential to give dividen. ( so , it was truth coz announce that it pay 4 cent dividen)

Receivable turnover Ratio
tguan = 68575/403,060 x 365 = 62.09 (Actual Full Quarter)

If Trade Reveivable + Inventories net of Trade payables and borrowing

Invotories value roughly 74,000/105205 = 0.70(minimum)


industrial benchmark pe = 10
if pe = 10 this will translate to share price 1.35

potential to be 1 bagger

price(march) vs eps(FYEnd)
2002
1,27 vs 10.2 benchmark =12

2003
3.1 vs 0.206 benchmark = 15

2004
2.25 vs 0.2548 benchmark = 10

2005
1.75 vs 0.2144 benchmark = 8.16

2006
1.47 vs 0.2033 benchmark = 7.23

2007
0.86 vs 0.1139 benchmark = 7.55

2008
0.70 vs 0.042 benchmark = 16.6

2009
0.82 vs 0.135 = ???? (undervalue)

A first and final tax exempt dividend of 2% ( 2 sen per share ) amounting to RM 2,104,090
in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2008 was paid on 7 August 2009.

So i projected the 4cent will paid on 7 August 2010 this year.

Receivable Turnover ration

CSCteel receivable turnover ratio


Net Sales / Average receivables = 273,745 / (95802+87073/2)
=2.99

Average receivable /sales x365 = 91437 / 273 ,745 x 365 = 121days.

Scomi receivable turnover ratio = 868,648/ 1487902 x 273.75 = 159.8days (3Q)

scomi marine turnover tation = 239675/337417 x 273.75 = 194.45days (3Q)

tguan = 65940/293602 x 273.75 = 61.48days (3Q)

whthorse = 133844/342992 x 273.75 = 106.8days (3Q)

success = 59583/145290 x273.5 = 112days (3Q)
62344 /198101 x365 = 114days (Full Q)

kfima = 122289/187675 x 273.75 = 179days (3Q)

Financial Ratios

Efficiency

Also called Asset Management ratios. Indicator of how efficiently the company manages its assets.

Days in Receivables

Definition: This calculation shows the average number of days it takes to collect your accounts receivable (number of days of sales in receivables).

Formula: (Average Accounts Receivable) / (Sales X 360 days)

Analysis: Look for trends that indicate a change in your customers' payment habits. Compare the calculated days in receivables to your stated terms. Compare to industry standards. Review an Aging of Receivables and be familiar with your customers payment habits and watch for any changes that might indicate a problem.

Accounts Receivable Turnover

Definition: Number of times that trade receivables turnover during the year.

Formula: (Net Sales) / (Average Accounts Receivable)
Analysis: The higher the turnover, the shorter the time between sales and collecting cash. Compare to industry standards.

If you monitor your financial ratios on a regular basis, you will gain insight into how effectively you are managing your business.

Lenders also like to evaluate risk by using several sets of ratios; ratios of assets to liabilities, and ratios of lender-investor dollars to owner-investor dollars. Recognize that ratios are indicators and that only you can tell the full story about your business. So the more adept you are at explaining your financial ratios to your lender, the better they will understand your business as they makes a credit decision.

Liquidity
Liquidity ratios measure a business' capacity to pay its debts as they come due.

Current Ratio

Definition: The ratio between all current assets and all current liabilities; another way of expressing liquidity.

Formula: (Current Assets) / (Current Liabilities)

Analysis: 1:1 current ratio means the company has $1.00 in current assets to cover each $1.00 in current liabilities. Look for a current ratio above 1:1 and as close to 2:1 as possible.

One problem with the current ratio is that it ignores timing of cash received and paid out. For example, if all the bills are due this week, and inventory is the only current asset, but won't be sold until the end of the month, the current ratio tells very little about the company's ability to survive.

Quick Ratio

Definition: The ratio between all assets quickly convertible into cash and all current liabilities. Specifically excludes inventory.

Formula: (Cash + Accounts Receivable) / (Current Liabilities)

Analysis: Indicates the extent to which you could pay current liabilities without relying on the sale of inventory - how quickly you can pay your bills. Generally, a ratio of 1:1 is good and indicates you don't have to rely on the sale of inventory to pay the bills.

Although a little better than the Current ratio, the Quick ratio still ignores timing of receipts and payments.

Safety
Indicator of the businesses' vulnerability to risk. These ratios are often used by creditors to determine the ability of the business to repay loans.

Debt to Equity

Definition: Shows the ratio between capital invested by the owners and the funds provided by lenders.

Formula: (Debt) / (Equity)

Analysis: Comparison of how much of the business was financed through debt and how much was financed through equity. For this calculation it is common practice to include loans from owners in equity rather than in debt. The higher the ratio, the greater the risk to a present or future creditor. Look for a debt to equity ratio in the range of 1:1 to 4:1. Most lenders have credit guidelines and limits for the debt to equity ratio (2:1 is a commonly used limit for small business loans).

Too much debt can put your business at risk... but too little debt may mean you are not realizing the full potential of your business -- and may actually hurt your overall profitability. This is particularly true for larger companies where shareholders want a higher reward (dividend rate) than lenders (interest rate). If you think that you might be in this situation, talk to your accountant or financial advisor.

Debt coverage ratio

Definition: Indicates how well your cash flow covers debt and the capacity of the business to take on additional debt.

Formula: (Net Profit + Non-cash expenses) / (Debt)

Analysis: Shows how much of your cash profits are available to repay debt. Lenders look at this ratio to determine if there is adequate cash to make loan payments. Most lenders also have limits for the debt coverage ratio.

Profitability
The ratios in this section measure the ability of the business to make a profit.

Sales Growth

Definition: Percentage increase (or decrease) in sales between two time periods.

Formula: (Current Year's sales - Last Year's sales) / (Last Year's sales)
Note: substitute sales for a month or quarter for a shorter term trend.

Analysis: Look for a steady increase in sales. If overall costs and inflation are on the rise, then you should watch for a related increase in your sales... if not, then this is an indicator that your Prices are not keeping up with your costs.

COGS to Sales

Definition: Percentage of sales used to pay for expenses which vary directly with sales.

Formula: (Cost of Goods Sold) / (Sales)

Analysis: Look for a stable ratio as an indicator that the company is controlling its gross margins.

Gross Profit Margin

Definition: Indicator of how much profit is earned on your products without consideration of selling and administration costs.

Formula: (Gross Profit) / (Total Sales) where Gross Profit = Sales less Cost of Goods Sold

Analysis: Compare to other businesses in the same industry to see if your business is operating as profitably as it should be. Look at the trend from month to month. Is it staying the same? Improving? Deteriorating? Is there enough gross profit in the business to cover your operating costs? Is there a positive gross margin on all your products?

SG&A to Sales

Definition: Percentage of selling, general and administrative costs to sales.

Formula: (Selling, General & Administrative Expenses) / (Sales)

Analysis: Look for a steady or decreasing percentage indicating that the company is controlling its overhead expenses.

Net Profit Margin

Definition: Shows how much profit comes from every dollar of sales.

Formula: (Net Profit) / (Total Sales)

Analysis: Compare to other businesses in the same industry to see if your business is operating as profitably as it should be. Look at the trend from month to month. Is it staying the same? Improving? Deteriorating? Are you generating enough sales to leave an acceptable profit? Trend from month to month can show how well you are managing your operating or overhead costs.

Return on Equity

Definition: Determines the rate of return on your investment in the business. As an owner or shareholder this is one of the most important ratios as it shows the hard fact about the business -- are you making enough of a profit to compensate you for the risk of being in business?

Formula: (Net Profit) / (Equity)

Analysis: Compare the return on equity to other investment alternatives, such as a savings account, stock or bond. Compare your ratio to other businesses in the same or similar industry.




Return on Assets

Definition: Considered a measure of how effectively assets are used to generate a return. (This ratio is not very useful for most businesses.)

Formula: (Net Profit) / (Total Assets)

Analysis: ROA shows the amount of income for every dollar tied up in assets. Year to year trends may be an indicator ... but watch out for changes in the total asset figure as you depreciate your assets (a decrease or increase in the denominator can effect the ratio and doesn't necessarily mean the business is improving or declining.


Days in Inventory

Definition: This calculation shows the average number of days it will take to sell your inventory (number of days sales @ cost in inventory).

Formula: (Average Inventory ) / (Cost of Goods Sold X 360 days

Analysis: Look for trends that indicate a change in your inventory levels. Compare the calculated days in inventory to your inventory cycle.

Inventory Turnover

Definition: Number of times that you turn over (or sell) inventory during the year.

Formula: (Cost of Goods Sold) Average Inventory

Analysis: Generally, a high inventory turnover is an indicator of good inventory management. But a high ratio can also mean there is a shortage of inventory. A low turnover may indicate overstocking, or obsolete inventory. Compare to industry standards.

Sales to Total Assets

Definition: Indicates how efficiently your business generates sales on each dollar of assets.

Formula: (Sales) / (Total Assets)

Analysis: A volume indicator that can be used to measure efficiency of your business from year to year.

Days in Accounts Payable

Definition: This calculation shows the average length of time your trade payables are outstanding before they are paid. (number of days sales @ cost in payables).

Formula: (Average Accounts Payable) / (COGS X 360 days)

Analysis: Look for trends that indicate a change in your payment habits. Compare the calculated days in payables to the terms offered by your suppliers. Compare to industry standards. Review an Aging of Payables and be familiar with the terms offered by your suppliers.

Accounts Payable Turnover

Definition: The number of times trade payables turnover during the year.

Formula: (COGS) / (Average Accounts Payable)

Analysis: The higher the turnover, the shorter the time between purchase and payment. A low turnover may indicate that there is a shortage of cash to pay your bills or some other reason for a delay in payment.

Receivables Turnover Ratio

What Does Receivables Turnover Ratio Mean?
An accounting measure used to quantify a firm's effectiveness in extending credit as well as collecting debts. The receivables turnover ratio is an activity ratio, measuring how efficiently a firm uses its assets.

Formula:


Receivables Turnover Ratio = Net Credit Sales / Average Account Receivable(opening + ending /2)

Some companies' reports will only show sales - this can affect the ratio depending on the size of cash sales. Investopedia explains Receivables Turnover Ratio
By maintaining accounts receivable, firms are indirectly extending interest-free loans to their clients. A high ratio implies either that a company operates on a cash basis or that its extension of credit and collection of accounts receivable is efficient.

A low ratio implies the company should re-assess its credit policies in order to ensure the timely collection of imparted credit that is not earning interest for the firm.

scomi 3Q

mp 0.41

EPS 3Q 5.25
NTA 0.91
if 4Q eps =2.71
pe = 5
DY = surely wont be high coz cash flow weak.

Quatlity pe?
Answer is No. I wonder y the so called 'sifu' make this call? As i understand more about FA on financial report . I wonder y they make this call? Because of swing trade or because of lack of understand of financial report? Or diffrent in investment theory? Maybe as i grow with share market.I polish my skill, i know how to diffrentiate good and bad and wheter ppl are talking real or not.

I grow coz Amithabha enlighten me all the way! Thanks!

lets see

Current Asset 1,370,543
current liabilities 895,192
Long term borrowing 989,735

Cash 138,616
Share 1,127,384

cash per share 138616 /1127384 = 0.12
0.12/0.41 = 29%

receivables turnover ration = net credit sales / average account receivables
Scomi receivable turnover ratio = 868,648/ 1487902 x 273.75 = 159.8days (3Q)
Not effiecient


Borrowing too high current asset - current liabilities still -ve, -514,348. No wonder share price couldnt go high.
-514,348 /1,127,348 = 0.456

you have to use 6 year of your earning to pay your debt. have to wait long long. Hard to be multibagger.forget it.

Wow, not good as well liabilities beat current assets.


In short, this one can do swing trade only. Same as scomi marine, depends on the appetiate on big boy. Can make 20% consider very good lor.

scomi marine 3Q

mp 0.46
000
current assets 321,069
current liabilites 237,763
long term borrowing 440,250


Cash 74,350
Share 733,009
eps 3Q = 0.08

cash per share 74,350 / 733,009 = 0.10
cash over share price 0.10 / 0.46 = 21%
NTA 1.4

trade receivable = 246,718. News to sell choffshore $143.6million = 344.4million cash. 344,400
Turnover ration = 239675/337417 x 273.75 = 194.45days (3Q) not efficient

Not really good, high debt. But the high debt was offset by the selling of choffshore. Enough to cover high interest which translate to about 20,000 or 3cent. per share. But cash flow look good after selling choffshore. Still lack of 100,000. This translate to 0.13 per share. No income after selling Choffshore. If cash is deduct to pay.

Not very good. Hope the management will use the money wisely,repay to bank. dunt burn money by mega project or white elephant investment.

Can do trading play only.

Reading on Success Tranformer

share price 1.20
current asset 118 ,489

current liability 45,799
long term borrowing 5,516

not bad +Ve , it is notable that in the current asset columnes, trade receivable and 66493 and inventories are high 29,702.

Receivable turnover ratio ( acceptable effienct, but not outstanding)
62344 /198101 x365 = 114days (Full Q)

cash 19,124
stock amount 120,000

cash per share
19,124 / 120,000 = 0.160

0.16/1.2 = 13.3%
Not very stong cash flow. Thats y no dividen declare.
NTA 1.15
DY = 0

Not my criteria. Can do trading play only

Busy FY End Season - Gopeng

It was a busy announcement day today.

It took a little bit of my attention on Gopeng record a historical high eps 22c.

I look into its account. It was horrible ugly. doesnt fufill my criteria to buy in.

Gopeng current mp 0.745
000
Current Asset 15,785
Current liability 31,726

-ve This doesnt look good. Borrowing too much

Receivable turnover ration 2961701 / 12,655,019 x 365 = 85days ( Effiecient )

look at its cash flow 000
12,569

Total share 000
179 329

cash per share 12,569 / 179 329 = only 0.07cent
0.07 / 0.745 = 9.4%

Weak cash flow. Doesnt meet my criteria to buy in as it doesnt have enough cash flow.

DY. No DY announced. I wouldnt be suprise it does not have any DY. All the eps are announce on paper. It doesnt have strong cash flow to give out dividen.

I dont not agree with the what... all drunk only awake sifu of his call. I wonder why he will call this stocks? Doesnt seemed to be proffesional fundamentalist instead more like a punter solely on luck.

As it doesnt meet my investment criteria. I will definetly not buy even goreng up.

Wht i buy today - whthorse

Today bought in wthorse 1.4 x 4

why buy in? Based on analysis from investment guru Hutu

1. High DY, interim 5c, estimated 12c whole year tax exempted 8.6%
2. Eps 2005 to 2009 around 20cent,vy stable business estimate 2009 will be 22cent
3. Cash per share = 0.31
4. NTA = 2.48
5. profit margin - 14.05%
6 net profit margin 10.00%

3Q FY 09
current assets 373,396
current liabilities 137,936
long term liablilites 30,000
cash 72,408
unit share 240,000
cash per share 72,408/240000 = 0.30
% cash /share 0.30 /1.4 = 21 %


receivables turnover ration = net credit sales / average account receivables
whthorse = 133844/342992 x 273.75 = 106.8days (3Q)
effiecitent


2nd brother investment technics

1.40 quality low pe = 6.36
strong cash flow, management translate cashflow to dividen, high dividen yield.
benchmark = 8-9


22cent x 8 = 176 target p9rice


charts price (march) vs eps FYend
2004 2.43 vs 0.3434 pe 7
2005 1.48 vs 0.207 pe 7
2006 1.30 vs 0.1915 pe 7
2007 1.19 vs 0.2098 pe 6 (cash 0.21)
2008 1.07 vs 0.2269 pe 5 (cash 0.27)

2009 1.4 vs 0.22*
pe = 7 , 1.54

speculate on the announcement of DY

2nd brother & Hutu - Investment Technic i will use in future

i found quite useful from 2nd brother blog. I taken some of the investment strategy from 2nd brother blog

1.所以当我们投资时，必须看完以上三点。

1.cash flow
有成长，被＂低估＂，没有 cash flow 不行。

2.成长
有 cash flow，没有成长，回酬只有 dividend yield, 股价不会上.

3. PE Growth
有成长，有 cash flow，PEG 可以使你事半功倍。

Technic = PE + Bench Marking + Appraisal

PE 那么完美的前提又是什么东东呢?
1. 假设公司没有债务
2. 假设公司的盈利都是有素质的 （quality of profit）
3. 假设公司的管理层都是能干的 （competent management）
4. 假设公司把盈利再投资或归还给股东 (Dividen Yield)
5. 假设公司的盈利就是 cash flow （profit = cash flow）
6. 等等....

我曾经说过，要用 PE 你一定要 bench marking，比方说一流的公司 PE ＂应该＂是 14－16，二流的是 10－13，三流的 8－9，如此类推。单单是 PE 还不够，可以加上 bench marking 就不错，如果再加 appraisal 会更好

appraisal 呢？ 你必须了解股票市场都会 appraise 高成长 和 给高股息 的股票比较高的 PE （16－22）。如果你买的公司 已经 trade 在 PE 20 了，不过它还可以继续高成长，那你根本不应该
股票的回酬，不外是以下三点。

1. dividend yield （股息）
相信我们都长听到 高股息 （high dividend yield stock）的股票。名字都已告诉你了，你的回酬只是股息，你偏不信，买了还希望股价会上。这些公司有 BAT，GUINESS，BTOTO，NESTLE 等等。但这些公司的 cash flow 很强，公司不会有问题，也有能力继续给高股息。重点是 cash flow。

2. 成长 （growth）
通常高成长股的 PE 会比较高，原因是它的高 PE 会因为高成长而迅速的降低。但如果 PE 过高，短期里你不会什么赚钱，因为它需要几年的高成长来拉低它的 PE（也就是会浪费几年）。最好是不要 valued 一间公司超过 PE 16。另外要注意的是它的盈利是否可以在未来的几年继续成长，如果不能，它的 PE 是不会继续高持的。如果你买的 PE 是 ＂合理＂的，那你赚的也就是未来的成长。如果你买的 PE 是 ＂被低估＂的，那你赚的也就是多过未来的成长。

3. PEG 或 PE expansion
也就是说它的 PE 是被低估了，这也是最难的问题。何为低估？何为高估？因为它是主观的，关系到了你的投资信念 （investing believe），比较基石 （bench marking），评估 （appraisal）等等。简单来说你相信某股票的 PE 是被低估了,迟早会回到＂合理＂的 PE。比如说以 public bank 那样一流的公司，PE 应该是 16，但现在只有 PE 10，它是被低估了。所以你一定要 bench marking，比如说一流的公司 PE 是 14-16，二流的是 10-13，三流的是 10 以下。


Hutu investment Technics,

Based on recomendation from investment guru's Hutu
1. EPS
2. Quality PE
3. DY
4. Cash per share
5. Efficientcy.
6. Historical Results 3 year at least


Example TGuan
3Q09 eps = 10.56
FY09 eps = 15
cash per share = 0.25
net cash company

current asset 153,571
current liability 54,874
long term borrowing 235
cash 26,570
share 105,205

cash per share 26,570/105,205 = 25.2c
cash vs share % 25.2/0.82 = 30% cash rich
trade receivable acceptabe. potential to give dividen.

Receivable turnover Ratio
tguan = 65940/293602 x 273.75 = 61.48days (3Q)

What i bought today - TGuan

What i bought today

tguan x 11000 @ 0.82

why buy this?

1.Based on recomendation from investment guru's Hutu

3Q09 eps = 10.56
FY09 eps = 15
cash per share = 0.25
net cash company

current asset 153,571
current liability 54,874
long term borrowing 235
cash 26,570
share 105,205

cash per share 26,570/105,205 = 25.2c
cash vs share % 25.2/0.82 = 30% cash rich
trade receivable acceptabe. potential to give dividen.

Receivable turnover Ratio
tguan = 65940/293602 x 273.75 = 61.48days (3Q)



industrial benchmark pe = 10
if pe = 10 this will translate to share price 1.50

potential to be 1 bagger

price(march) vs eps(FYEnd)
2002
1,27 vs 10.2 benchmark =12

2003
3.1 vs 0.206 benchmark = 15

2004
2.25 vs 0.2548 benchmark = 10

2005
1.75 vs 0.2144 benchmark = 8.16

2006
1.47 vs 0.2033 benchmark = 7.23

2007
0.86 vs 0.1139 benchmark = 7.55

2008
0.70 vs 0.042 benchmark = 16.6

2009
0.82 vs 0.15* (undervalue)

Why i write this blog?

Was asking myself why wtite this blog.

I want to make this blog as my investment diary.

To write down on my investment / trading experience.

To write down why i buy . Recomendation from investment guru's.

To alert myself when doing trading. Success or failure experience.

To better understand my position and information gathering.

22/02/2010

Stock to watch
plantation
cepat -0.94 bought in 2000 unit

Why buy in
10,684.08ha in Sabah, of which 8,094ha are planted. Sold 2000 hectar = 8684ha. Debt Free , Cash rich.

27457acre as at 17 Jan 2008, largest shareholder = MHC

Valuation
share 212,456,915 market cap = 202,520,500 unit price = 0.94

1 hectare公顷 = 2.471 acre英亩

(share x mp)/ area owned (acre) = price bought per acre

202520500 / (8684 x 2.471) = 9437per acre

202520500 / 21458 = 9437 per acre

what to speculate? market price for matured tree per acre = RM30000 when cpo peaked
multi bagger

when is peak?

3/2008 cpo price = 4200
4/2008 cpo price = 3400
current = 2600

From the star online
"With CPO prices hovering above RM3,000 per tonne, the plantation sector still boasts high profit margins as the cost per tonne is about RM800 to RM1,000. "




cold eyes owned 1,380,000 this stocks

Stock to Watch

Based on the recommendation of one of the fundamental analysis master.

protasco - constr, current price 1.00, high DY 8% yearly wthout failed, net cash 23 c,nta 1.11

Eksons - core business, plywood, property
watch price 0.78, projected pe 2011 = 2.4, net cash 21c, div 2011 paid on 23/11/10, DY 5.3


EMETALL (7217) - core business , steel ,manufacturing of steel products focusing on Secondary Flat Steel Products and Steel Storage Systems, machinery and equipment focusing on Metalwork Machinery and Equipment, Industrial Process Machinery and

major shareholder are controlling another co, Lsteel
NTA = 71 c

CSCSTEEL, 1.58
NTA 2.1, 2009 eps24, 20cent 2009, 64cent cash, 7-8% DY 2007 2008

Ahelath -Apex Healthcare Berhad from nanyang.com
***Refer Bursa*** NTA=RM2.01, shareholder accu at RM1.15 -1.22
wanted price 1.8, eps22,dy 10c,low gearing


Ptaras - construction, manufacturing,rely on msia,
net cash 1.17, dy 6.7%,
1.32 -1.5

kimhin - current price 1.2,
eps 2009 18c, eps 2008 3c, not consisten, 1.17 net cash,low dy,share holder buy back stock,

lysaght - Refer Bursa for B/S & P/L***NTA RM=2.02 , can accumulate if price below rm1.00
亚洲电镀柱、杆、塔和栏杆的主要制造商——利实镀钢, 41million cash reserve able to pay dividen,net cash 67 c,dy 1999 to 2008 5c

bplas
BPPlas，5100，主板工业产品股
***Refer Bursa & shareinvestor*** NTA=rm0.69, can accu if less RM0.50

Stock to Watch 10/2/09

Here are some of the quote from famous investor master - cold eyes. Lets see if we have a chance to buy what he mentioned.

OSK的研究员预测金狮工业今年每股净利为42.5仙，以目前1.60令吉上下的股价计算，本益比还不到四倍(首季每股净利9.78仙)，每股净有形资产价值为3.87令吉。丹斯里钟廷森以每股1令吉29仙买进1亿多股，不是没有理由的。

William Cheng is one of the famous enterpeuner, his stock are volatile usually. If the price keep dropping. It provide us very good opp.

Stock to Watch 10/2/09

What to bet?
Scomimr

Capital Repayment. Selling of CHOffShore bring 0.09 c each share to Scomimr. The total sell which will be receive is equivalent to 343million. This means to say at the price of 0.43 per share it is almost equivalent to the entire chunk of the share of scomi.

Shld be cash rich , aim to repayback capital if scomi want to be more focus on it monorail core business.



Protasco
Consisten
Consistent dividen every year. 8%
Cash Rich,Healthy income ( need to future read up)
Current price - 0.99 .
Wait it drop to lower level only observe.
In waiting list.

Ajiya

Stock in radar.. dividen 6 c only. But results consistent and impressive. Waiting it to drop to 1.00

World Cup year

Before i forgot... This is the world cup year.

Based on exp , market shld drop quite kao in 11June- 11July. Thus, keep more bullet for bargain hunting stocks during 2 wks of WC.

Cscsteel exdate 11-6-2009

Entitlement Type: Final Dividend
Entitlement Date and Time: 30/06/2010 05:00 PM
Year Ending/Period Ending/Ended Date: 31/12/2009
EX Date: 28/06/2010
To SCANS Date:
Payment Date: 12/07/2010
Interest Payment Period:
Rights Issue Price: 0.000
Trading of Rights Start On:
Trading of Rights End On:
Stock Par Value:

Today bought

Market are heading downwards today. Not sure this stock will all the way down to 0.30.

But i thk shld be ok gua, coz 87.7 % share is in the hand of major shareholder... consist AXA,EPF,LTH,AMR,Scomi

I had bought in total 10 lot of scomimr at the average price of 0.47. Shl

Make some mistake. Buy in too high in the morning 4lot @ 0.48 later on leverage down it to 10 lot @ avp 0.47.


Since market is heading downword for the next few mths. I decided to stop buy this stock for a while, at least 1 or 2 mths untill it reach 0.30 , then only consider to buy somemore or not.

My painful experience in another speculative stock (huaan) ... told me that is not good to use all my money to keep buying from the high, when u think low (-20% lower) and go in full string .. it can be lower (-30%) lower (-50%) and by the time it hit lowest (-70%).. i had no more money and even i had the money i do not had courage to buy somemore. For the moment now, i do not had the luxury to do so. Not much money in my bank.

I had sucessfully buy another stock today. Scomi-la @ 0.105 for 9lot. Now i had total

Citi - 2.6 lot @ 4.2
Scomi-la - 33.6lot @ 0.116
Scomimr - 14lot @ 0.468

I will reserve money to buy in
1. CSCSteel (if happen to have chance to buy in below 1.30 again.)
2. Genting SP ( Jacky told me shld watch to see if have chance to buy 0.8-0.90)


My aim , Citi 1 times earning 8 dollar.
Scomimr 60% earning to 0.80
Scomi-LA 60% earning to 0.19

All in red.. But i think if i dun move for 1 year , it will at least bring me some profit. Next year, i shall visit this pages again. History tell that i am good in choosing stock. History also tell that, i dun have patience to hold stock for at least a year. Since, Scomimr derived income (dividen) i will treat this investment as FD. Lets see if i really can tahan for a year, 15/2/2011 under what condition also dun sell these stocks.

Namo Amitabha!

Buy In SCOMIMR

Check with my investment consultant. There will be some figure announcement in US, Friday. To my prediction market shld continue to slide. As per plan. i had bought in 4 lot Scomimr. Not much. Let see if tomorow it will drop futher. If 4Qtr figure announce. Its Eps shld be around 0.11 , if pe = 7 . Target Price should be 0.77.If market drop futher i will buy more to 10 lots and treat it as 12 mths FD.

I do not know all the complicated charting, wheter this will rise or not. But all i knew is to buy when there is not much ppl looking at it. Margin of safety and Sell high.

So today buy in 4 lot Scomimr @ 0.465

Feb 2010 Speculation Bet.

Target Identified. Scomi Marine.

Current price - 0.475
What to bet - Flying Q4 result on february, demand on coal , oil rising

Why bet this - margin of safety, high nta, low pe, dividend paid every year

Forecast good earning in Q4,consistent earning record. 2005 11.xx, 2006 11.xx, 2007 11.xx, 2008 8.86 , 2009 11.xx

Downside - minimal ( no cut loss, if drop more than 20% and QE result out flying will buy more)
- 10 lot 0.475

Target Price - 0.77

Earning Target - 3k only

Market update

Suprisingly market rebound recently. I wish i could know what is going to happen next but i couldnt. I must extra cautious. What is going to happen next. Jan, Feb , March usually is good trading month. April to June will be tough month. Use to put all the egg in a basket but all the egg break. hahaha. I have limited bullet, plan to diversfy my holdings.

Discover a good stock. Too lazy, maybe too late to read earning reports. Gopeng .. 3Qtr earning 13.00 cent . if 0.68 pe only 5.3 . The next quater pe shld be good. I am too late for the correction. I shld apply buy during correcttion. Sell during good news. Maybe no chance anymore.


In my waiting list now

Genting SP 0.8 - 0.9
Gopeng 0.68
Scomi-la 0.10

Stock To Monitor 2/2/2009

The recent dips in world stokcs market provide a very good investment opportunity for investor. This is some of the stocks in my monitor list.

NYSE
Citi

SGX
Genting Sp

KLSE
ptaras
ajiya
cscsteel
mas-pa
ytlpowr
ytlpowr-wb
scomimr
scomi
scomi-la
mbfhldg
mbfhldg-wa ( Shld be very good to spec if drop to 1c, conversion 1.00 ,exp2013 eps 8c per year)
zhulian
lionind
choobee
LHH

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Hi I am Ivan!

Glad to know all of you. I am a stock investor who are spending a lot of time to read and research.

I would like to share what i heard (tips), my research / analysis from the market. My objective of writting this blog is to share my investment ideals , thought, tips with all the reader. Hope i can help in building wealth for all the readers.

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